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2401 Montana Avenue, #301
Billings, Montana 59101
406.252.9672 • billings@worc.org
Tuesday, May 10, 2005
Dr. Robert Wisner, 515-294-7318;
Todd Leake, 701-594-4275; or John Smillie or Kevin Dowling, WORC staff,
406-252-9672
BILLINGS, MONT. – Prospects for introducing
genetically modified (GM) wheat in the U.S. haven’t improved since Monsanto shelved its research
and development plans one year ago, according to Dr. Robert Wisner, a leading grain market economist.
Introduction of genetically modified wheat in the U.S.
still risks the loss of one-fourth to one-half of U.S. hard red spring
and durum wheat export markets and up to a one-third drop in
price, according to the latest update of an October 2003 report, Market
Risks
of
Genetically Modified Wheat, released today by the Western Organization
of Resource Councils (WORC). Dr. Wisner is the University Professor of
Economics at Iowa State University.
“One year after Monsanto’s decision, consumers
in Europe and Asia remain resistant to GM crops,” said Todd Leake,
a wheat grower from Grand Forks, N.D., and WORC spokesperson. “Introducing
GM wheat would open the door for our competitors to take more of the
export market and depress prices paid to U.S. wheat growers.”
The report covers policy changes, trends, and other developments that may affect market risk, including:
Some European Union (EU) policies on GM crops
and food are changing, but so far, consumer attitudes have not.
Ten central and eastern European nations joined the EU, increasing the
number of countries with food labeling programs. Labeling allows consumers
in these countries to show their preferences about GM food to food companies,
wheat producers and to the seed industry.
Syngenta is developing fusarium-resistant GM wheat,
but may not release it for six years or more. Consumers overseas may
be as resistant to Syngenta’s
GM wheat as to Monsanto’s.
Monsanto developed GM hard red spring wheat to resist
the commonly used Round-Up® herbicide. The company indefinitely postponed
release of its GM wheat in May 2004, compelled by the market resistance
documented by Dr. Wisner’s original report. In that report, Dr.
Wisner found:
A large majority of foreign consumers and wheat buyers
do not want GM wheat. At least 37 countries had mandatory labeling programs
for food with GM ingredients as of October 2003.
Commercialization of GM wheat in the U.S. now or
in the next few years would create a high risk of loss of one-third
to one-half
of U.S. hard red spring and durum wheat exports.
The European market for U.S. hard red spring and durum
wheat likely would be lost completely.
Hard red spring and durum wheat prices could fall by
one-third, to feed wheat levels.
Increased government program payments would only partially
offset lower wheat prices.
Plummeting prices would lead to lost wheat acreage,
loss of revenue to farm-related and rural non-farm businesses, and falling
local and state tax revenues.
Market risks for GM wheat are substantially greater than for GM
corn and soybeans. Unlike wheat, most corn and soybeans are fed to
livestock or processed into oils and sweeteners. The U.S. share
of world exports is much smaller for wheat than corn or soybeans,
and domestic
demand for corn (unlike wheat) is growing rapidly.
The issue is consumer acceptance. Consumers are the driving force in countries where food labeling
allows choice. Governmental approval does not guarantee consumer acceptance.
WORC is a regional network representing
farmers and ranchers in Colorado, Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, Oregon,
South Dakota, and Wyoming
05/10/05 te
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